The Pawsey Supercomputing Centre

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Predicting evolutionary potential under climate change from phylogenomic data

Climate change is occurring and species are moving, adapting, or facing extinction [1]. There are now good indications that features of the phylogeny and ecological niche of species can be used to predict a species’ ability to adapt to climate change [2, 3, 4]. The core of this proposal is to develop a framework that allows us to infer a highly resolved phylogeny for previously un-sequenced organisms, and to incorporate this phylogeny into macroecological predictions of evolutionary potential in response to climate change. As a test case, this framework will be developed using a model fruit fly (Drosophilidae) data set, for which there is already enough data to empirically predict evolutionary potential.

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